Energy: Concerns over supply security

Although energy prices de-escalated following the ceasefire announcements, concerns over supply security persist. Brent crude may have fallen below €100, to €94 per barrel, but natural gas at the TTF remains high at €53/MWh, raising concerns at a time when Europe must begin the process of replenishing its reserves.

Thus, compared to last Easter, when the focus was mainly on managing low demand and increased production from renewable energy sources, this year the priority is supply security, amid international uncertainty and elevated prices.

Meetings at the Ministry of Environment and Energy

Within this context, the political leadership of the Ministry of Environment and Energy is holding consecutive meetings today, Holy Wednesday, under Minister Stavros Papastavrou and Deputy Minister Nikos Tsafos. The focus is on supply security, the smooth provision of electricity ahead of Easter, as well as assessing the impact of the escalating crisis in the Middle East. All key market stakeholders are participating in the discussions, from the RAAEY to system operators DESFA, ADMIE and DEDDIE, as well as representatives of refineries, natural gas suppliers and power producers.

Diversification of supplies

For now, the picture in the Greek market has ensured the flow of raw materials. Refineries such as HELLENiQ ENERGY and Motor Oil have diversified their supply sources, reducing their exposure to the Middle East. Crude oil is sourced from a wide range of countries — from Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia to Norway and the United States — while for Iraqi oil an alternative route via pipelines has already been activated.

At the same time, the country maintains strategic oil reserves exceeding 90 days, without having proceeded — unlike other European countries — to releases. An important “shield” is also the increased filling level of LNG terminals, which on March 28 reached 70.3%, up from 30.2% a month earlier.

The international situation

However, the international environment remains “uncertain”, as despite the ceasefire, attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East have limited the supply of energy commodities, including crude oil, gas, petrochemicals and diesel. Attention has also turned — albeit less visibly — to attacks by drones on vessels, including those of Greek interests, carrying energy cargoes in the Baltic and Black Sea regions. At the same time, demand from Asia, which until now was largely covered by Gulf countries, has shifted to other markets, putting upward pressure on prices globally, with a direct impact on Europe.

The situation is further aggravated by low reserves. Underground natural gas storage facilities in the EU are at just 28.1% of their capacity, while LNG terminals are operating at around 49.6%. Under these conditions, replenishment ahead of the next winter becomes particularly challenging, with the European Commission expressing strong concern over potential price pressures.

A key factor is also the Strait of Hormuz, where restricted vessel transit has already reduced cargo availability, affecting about one-fifth of the global LNG market and increasing volatility.

Greece

In this environment, Greece appears better prepared compared to 2022, though it is not unaffected. Adequacy seems secured in the short term; however, prolonged tension and high prices sustain uncertainty. The duration of the crisis will determine whether the impact will remain confined to prices or extend to supply adequacy, with energy costs fueling broader inflationary pressures.