Greece–Cyprus electricity interconnection enters final stretch

The Greece–Cyprus electricity interconnection project (GSI) appears to be entering its final stretch, with the relevant NAVTEX potentially being issued as early as today, Friday, November 6, or over the weekend of November 7–8.

The countdown is expected to begin with today’s meeting of the Committee for the Granting of Marine Research Permits (ECHAETH), which will examine a request by project contractor Nexans for exceptional authorization to use the specialized research vessel VB Abeille Marengo.

According to sources, the research vessel, which has been docked at the port of Heraklion since October 27, has informed the local Port Authority that it intends to depart from the Cretan port today.

Once the committee approves Nexans’ request, the remaining procedures are expected to move swiftly. Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis will sign the relevant decision, which will then be forwarded to the Ministry of National Defence, allowing the Hellenic Navy’s Hydrographic Service to issue the NAVTEX specifying the areas and duration of the survey operations.

The surveys will resume in the waters off Kasos, where operations by the Italian research vessel Ievoli Relume were halted in the summer of 2024, after Turkey dispatched four warships to the area, challenging Greece’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ).

The French “shield” protecting the cable

The key question, therefore, is whether Turkey will react this time and, if so, how.

In the meantime, the Greece–Cyprus electricity interconnection has acquired a distinctly French dimension, following the acquisition of a majority stake in GSI by French investment group Meridiam last August.

It has not been officially clarified whether Turkey has received written notification from the French company, as requested by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. The Greek side had agreed that Turkey could be informed, provided the notification explicitly stated that it did not constitute a request for authorization.

It is worth noting that French President Emmanuel Macron held a telephone conversation with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on October 28, one day after the Abeille Marengo arrived in Heraklion, Crete. Officially, the cable project was not on the agenda, but it is reasonable to assume that the issue was also raised.

Meanwhile, yesterday, French Ambassador to Ankara Isabelle Dumont met with Turkish Deputy Foreign Minister Mehmet Kemal Bozay, who also heads Turkey’s Directorate for European Union Affairs.

How the cable is linked to the US midterm elections

The meeting of the marine research permits committee, which is expected to set in motion the process for issuing the NAVTEX, appears to have been delayed because Athens was awaiting the results of the US midterm elections.

Those results are considered favorable to the resumption of survey operations for the cable, as the new Democrat-controlled Congress is expected to provide stronger checks on Turkey.

More specifically, Athens believes that Turkey will think twice before taking actions that could put it in Congress’s crosshairs, particularly at a time when Ankara is eager to rejoin the F-35 fighter jet program.

Of course, the newly elected senators who will shift the balance of power in Congress will not be sworn in until January. Until then, Congress will continue operating with its current composition.

In any case, Athens had also been counting on support from the Trump administration, particularly US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who, following his visit to Greece, had conveyed that Washington would intervene behind the scenes to prevent a Greek–Turkish confrontation.

Meanwhile, however, Rubio is reportedly considering resigning as head of the State Department to distance himself from Trump, who has become increasingly politically “toxic,” and seek the Republican presidential nomination in 2028.

How Turkey could respond

Ankara could respond to the Greek NAVTEX concerning the Greece–Cyprus cable by issuing a counter-NAVTEX, allowing the Erdoğan government to demonstrate to its domestic audience that it is not letting the matter pass without a response.

It should be recalled that a similar dispute involving competing Greek and Turkish NAVTEX notices erupted over survey operations conducted by the vessel Kobi Ruegg for the installation of the East to Med Corridor (EMC) fiber-optic cable, which will run from Greece to Saudi Arabia.

Those surveys are taking place in approximately the same area where the Abeille Marengo is expected to operate. Questions had also been raised as to whether the contractor responsible for the EMC project had submitted an authorization request to Turkey.

Nevertheless, despite the Greek–Turkish dispute over NAVTEX notices, the Kobi Ruegg has continued its work on the EMC project as planned.

If Turkey limits its response to issuing a NAVTEX and making radio challenges, without deploying warships, Greece will respond with its own counter-NAVTEX, and survey operations for GSI will proceed amid what would essentially remain a war of words.

However, if Turkey attempts to obstruct the surveys by deploying warships, there is a risk of a military confrontation.

Athens nevertheless believes that this scenario is unlikely.

Indeed, in an interview on October 21, Gerapetritis stated: “From what I understand, there is no indication of any intention on Turkey’s part to react.”
The “grey areas” surrounding the notification of Turkey
Even if surveys for the Greece–Cyprus cable proceed without a dangerous escalation at sea, questions remain over the arrangement apparently chosen for notifying Turkey.

As former Prime Minister Kostas Karamanlis has pointed out, there is a risk that Turkey could interpret the notification as setting a precedent and subsequently demand to be informed about every project or activity undertaken by Greece within its territorial waters.

“After this, we will no longer be able to do anything in the Aegean without Turkey’s permission. Not even the smallest infrastructure project between our islands,” Karamanlis had warned.

Furthermore, even if Turkey does not attempt to obstruct the resumption of cable operations, it will make absolutely clear, possibly through a counter-NAVTEX, that it considers the survey area to fall within its own exclusive economic zone.

In other words, Ankara will not abandon its claims or its “Blue Homeland” doctrine.

For its part, Greece will maintain that the notification was precisely that: a notification, not a request for authorization.

The notification will also have been sent to all other countries in the region, namely Cyprus, Egypt, Israel and Lebanon, so that Turkey is not singled out.

However, given that there is no requirement to notify other states, Turkey is likely to portray the communication as what amounts, in practice, to a request for authorization.