Two plus one good reasons for snap elections in the autumn

The possibility of heading to the polls as early as September is currently on the table at the Maximos Mansion. Prime Minister Mitsotakis will weigh several factors before making his final decision, which effectively must be reached before the Thessaloniki International Fair (TIF).

Otherwise, the first question he will face at the Vellideio press conference will inevitably concern early elections. At that point, he would either have to deny them or pre-announce them.

1. Pre-empting Alexis Tsipras’s New Party

First and foremost, a very strong reason for a (slightly) early recourse to the polls this autumn concerns Alexis Tsipras’s anticipated new party. The logic is that the former Prime Minister will not have had enough time to organize the new entity and, consequently, will lack momentum.

The Maximos Mansion considers Mr. Tsipras a potentially dangerous opponent. This is evident from the attacks launched against him and the haste to remind voters—especially those in the political center—of the events of 2015. There are also concerns that a new Tsipras party, combined with PASOK and SYRIZA, could aggregate a higher percentage than New Democracy (ND) and form a government. This explains the constant pressure on PASOK to clarify who they would be willing to cooperate with.

2. Keeping MPs in Line

Another compelling reason for Mr. Mitsotakis to call early elections involves internal unrest within New Democracy.

The Maximos Mansion’s handling of the second case file regarding OPEKEPE (Payment and Control Agency for Guidance and Guarantee Community Aid) sparked resentment among MPs, who are already worried about their reelection prospects if ND’s polling numbers don’t improve. However, as long as they believe elections are imminent, they remain relatively “well-behaved.”

This was demonstrated during Thursday’s Parliamentary Group meeting; while a “civil war” between ministers and MPs broke out, the “blue” lawmakers avoided targeting the Maximos Mansion directly and maintained verbal decorum. In fact, Mr. Mitsotakis appears to be intentionally fueling election anxieties to maintain order.

When MP Vassilis Ypsilantis shouted a question about the election date as the PM was leaving the room, Mitsotakis jokingly replied: “Well, definitely after the TIF,” a move uncharacteristic of him.

Naturally, the next day, government spokesperson Pavlos Marinakis stated that elections will be held in 2027, as excessive election talk can have a dissolving effect on the government.

3. Beating the Winter Energy Bills

The third “deadly” reason for autumn elections relates to the war in Iran and its economic consequences.

If the conflict has subsided by then, so much the better, though the impact on the global economy will be felt for months or years. However, if the war is still ongoing, the government will seriously consider whether it is preferable to hold elections before citizens start paying for heating oil or natural gas.

Necessary Conditions

For the election scenario to proceed:

• There must be no further case files regarding OPEKEPE.
• The “wiretapping” (Predator) case must be closed.
• Polling data must show an improvement in ND’s prospects.

Under a best-case scenario, Mr. Mitsotakis estimates he could still pursue a parliamentary majority (at least in a second round of voting) while simultaneously electing a completely controlled Parliamentary Group.